Beyond the scope of ecosystem services, urban species are of great importance for their cultural, economic, and intrinsic values. As global climate changes we often come across research trying to predict how species will react to our changing world. But what of urban species? How will they be affected? 

 This paper looked over terrestrial species distributed in over 60 cities across developed urban cities in Canada and the United States. Using the Global Information Facility (GBIF) they focused on common urban species and species with at least 10 recorded sightings in the last 10 years. For predicting future climate conditions, they used global circulation models in R that consider different levels of greenhouse gas emissions and predicts the increase in urbanization under different conditions of urban sprawl and densification.

The results of this analysis predicted that, by the end of the century, all of these cities will experience gain and losses of species. Greenhouse emissions and urbanization will make species’ turnover more dramatic, and it will influence which species will do well in urban areas.  For instance, places with colder and wetter climates, such as in Canada and the Midwest will see the largest influx of new species. Meanwhile hotter places with a lot of rainfall, such as the subtropical U.S. and Coastal California will lose many species. Arid places will see the least number of changes since they are more resilient to climate variations.

What caught my attention in this paper is that according to their predictions, biodiversity as we know in urban areas could change a lot. For instance, urban areas will probably sound quite different from now, as some species of birds leave, and new species move in. We may also experience more exotic species in urban areas, which will increase competition for the natives already dealing with the pressures of an urban environment. Raleigh was one of the cities in this study, which is predicted to lose at least 32% of bee species.

As we continue to expand into urban areas, predicting the future might paint us a gloomy picture. The wildlife that we have grown used to seeing in our cities could be replaced by species more suited to our new climate reality. Which makes me question not only the ecological issues, but also how will this shift impact the way we connect with nature in urban environments, specially the ones that are part of our cultural identity. Gloomy as they might be, these predictions are critical, as they can help us to find solutions to reshape our cities in a way that minimizes the impact on the wildlife that shares urban spaces with us.

Source: Filazzola A, Johnson MTJ, Barrett K, Hayes S, Shrestha N, Timms L, et al. (2024) The great urban shift: Climate change is predicted to drive mass species turnover in cities. PLoS ONE 19(3): e0299217. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0299217